How much tax revenue could the UK generate from legalising cannabis?

Well, we don’t actually know yet!


Marijuana legalization could inject over $130 billion into US tax coffers by 2025 — if the Trump administration stays hands-off!

A report from New Frontier Data estimates the cannabis industry could generate $131.8 billion in federal tax revenue and add 1.1 million jobs by 2025 if it’s legalized for adult use in all 50 states.

If the US were to legalize cannabis federally today, it would add 782,000 jobs to the economy, according to the study.

The country could be leaving billions in tax revenue on the table if it keeps the status quo patchwork of state laws , rather than coherent federal regulations.

Marijuana legalization could create $132 billion in federal tax revenue and inject over a million jobs into the US labor market by 2025 if it becomes legal nationwide, a new study says.

The study, from cannabis industry analytics firm New Frontier Data, seeks to estimate the total economic impact of the nascent industry. Cannabis is legal in eight states, including California, which legalized recreational sales on January 1. Vermont is likely to join that list once Gov. Phil Scott signs a bill legalizing the possession of up to one ounce of marijuana into law.

The study assumes the tax revenue, which will add $131.8 billion cumulatively to the US Treasury by 2025, will come from a 15% retail tax, payroll tax deductions, and a 35% business tax. Sales tax alone on cannabis would add $51.7 billion to US coffers between 2017 and 2025.

While commercial cannabis markets are up-and-running in eight states, the federal government can’t collect any taxes on the industry since cannabis is considered an illegal, Schedule I drug. That means cannabis would be an entirely new revenue source for the US government.

“If cannabis businesses were legalized tomorrow and taxed as normal businesses with a standard 35 percent tax rate, cannabis businesses would infuse the U.S. economy with an additional $12.6 billion this year,” New Frontier’s CEO, Giadha Aguirre De Carcer said in a statement.

New Frontier’s estimates rely on a theoretical model where cannabis is legalized in all 50 states, and Congress creates a structure for the federal government to collect taxes on the industry. The difference between that model and the current patchwork of state laws is $76.8 billion in revenue.

In other words, the federal government will leave over $75 billion on the table, if it doesn’t legalize the drug, according to New Frontier. That echoes a report from ArcView Market Research, which predicts the entire legal cannabis market to reach $24.5 billion in sales — representing a 21% growth rate — by 2021.

If legalized in all 50 states, cannabis would immediately add 782,000 jobs to the US economy. That number would increase to 1.1 million by 2025. To put that number in perspective, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the total US labor force to increase by 10.5 million people in the next decade.

But Attorney General Jeff Sessions, a noted cannabis opponent, rescinded Obama-era rulesdirecting the Justice Department to keep its hands off of state-legal cannabis businesses earlier this month, which may put the industry’s future in jeopardy. A growing chorus of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle blasted Sessions’ move, though the cannabis industry was unperturbed.

Public opinion seems to be on the cannabis industry’s side. Some 58% of voters said in a Quinnipiac poll on Thursday that marijuana should be legal, and 70% of voters oppose enforcing federal laws in states that have made marijuana legal.

Jeremy Burke, author. Jeremy is a reporter on Business Insider’s Science team, where he covers energy, sustainability, and cannabis. He graduated from Bowdoin College in 2014 with a degree in Earth and Oceanographic Science, and previously wrote for Atlas Obscura. Jeremy was born in Toronto and is based in Brooklyn. 

Original Business Insider Article can be read here.


Italian border town of Ventimiglia loses patience with migrants from Libya.

July 22 2017, 12:01am, The Times
“After two years of handing out blankets, we are tired,” Mr Amarella, 63, who runs the local residents’ association, said. “There’s too many of them, and this is no longer a welcome — their human rights are being trampled on.”

A low wall separates Ventimiglia’s working-class neighbourhood from the banks of the river Roia, where in summer the waters recede to a sluggish trickle, leaving a wide expanse of stony riverbed and bushes.

Sitting on the wall, Mario Amarella gazed out at the hundreds of African migrants spread out across the stones, sleeping, praying, washing and waiting for smugglers they hope will take them into France, three miles away.

“After two years of handing out blankets, we are tired,” Mr Amarella, 63, who runs the local residents’ association, said. “There’s too many of them, and this is no longer a welcome — their human rights are being trampled on.”

Hundreds of migrants arrive in Ventimiglia every week in an attempt to reach France after sailing from Libya, but of those who make it across the border, 25,000 have been sent back by French police since the start of last year after being turfed off trains or rounded up on mountain paths.

That has turned the town into Italy’s Calais and made it the focus of a growing reluctance up and down the country to look after the 200,000 migrants now packed into reception centres since the arrival of 181,000 last year and more than 90,000 this year.

At Mr Amarella’s neighbourhood church, fewer local residents are showing up since the priest followed the Pope’s advice to care for migrants and started feeding and sheltering African families, single women and small children. This week, as dozens of migrants sat in the church’s car park, three elderly Italians attended a service inside.

“I don’t see an alternative to the migrants being here,” Father Rito Julio Alvarez, who is Colombian, said. “Some of the women we put up have been trafficked and we are trying to free them from prostitution.”


The town’s mayor does not agree, and is trying to transfer the women into a Red Cross-run camp between a railway goods yard and a flyover on the edge of town. Already home to nearly 500 migrants, mostly Sudanese, the site offers camp-beds under the flyover for the overflow.

“Three years ago, when migrants arrived on the train, locals were turning out to give them food and clothes,” Enrico Ioculano, the centre-left mayor, said. “But now people are stressed out and the smallest spark could provoke a reaction, whether it’s someone dropping litter or crossing the road in the wrong place. I want to avoid violence.”

He added: “The church doesn’t always understand that if you break the relationship between the migrants and the community, it’s hard to repair it.”

At the other end of Italy, the mayor of the Sicilian village of Castell’Umberto took matters into his own hands this month, erecting a barricade to stop electricians providing power to a hotel just as 50 migrants were housed there after being rescued off the Libyan coast.

Sicily’s enduring acceptance of newcomers may be further tested this autumn if the Five Star Movement steps up its attacks on migration as it campaigns to win the election in November for governor of the island.

Antonio Decaro, mayor of Bari and the head of Italy’s association of mayors, said that the mood was shifting among mayors across the country who have agreed to host migrants, only to see that many others have refused.

“The government has told us they will send us three migrants for every 1,000 residents, which means Cona near Venice, a town of 3,000, should have received nine. Instead they got 1,400,” he said. “The protests are not about racism but overcrowding.”


Italy is running out of patience with its neighbours (Tom Kington writes). Annoyance starts with the deal it struck with the EU to allow Brussels’ Operation Triton patrol vessels to unload all the migrants they rescue off Libya in Italy.

The same privilege was given to naval ships in the EU anti-smuggling operation Sophia, as well as charity rescue boats. The use of their ports has become a touchy subject with Italian voters after 93,000 migrants arrived this year, up 11 per cent on last year.

A further irritation is that the Dublin rules insist migrants request asylum in the first European country they are identified in. If they are identified in Italy then head to France to ask for asylum, they can be turned back under the treaty. After Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia wrote to Italy demanding it shut its ports to migrants this week, Rome tartly replied yesterday: “We expect solidarity from the EU, and we don’t take lessons and will not accept threatening words.”

In 2015 Italy was promised that 160,000 migrants from Italy and Greece would be spread across Europe. Two years on, only 7,621 have left Italy.

Read the original article here.